Value-Based Integrated Care: A Systematic Literature Review.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare services worldwide are transforming themselves into value-based organizations. Integrated care is an important aspect of value-based healthcare (VBHC), but practical evidence-based recommendations for the successful implementation of integrated care within a VBHC context are lacking. This systematic review aims to identify how value-based integrated care (VBIC) is defined in literature, and to summarize the literature regarding the effects of VBIC, and the facilitators and barriers for its implementation. METHODS: Embase, Medline ALL, Web of Science Core Collection, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trails databases were searched from inception until January 2022. Empirical studies that implemented and evaluated an integrated care intervention within a VBHC context were included. Non-empirical studies were included if they described either a definition of VBIC or facilitators and barriers for its implementation. Theoretical articles and articles without an available full text were excluded. All included articles were analysed qualitatively. The Rainbow Model of Integrated Care (RMIC) was used to analyse the VBIC interventions. The quality of the articles was assessed using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT). RESULTS: After screening 1328 titles/abstract and 485 full-text articles, 24 articles were included. No articles were excluded based on quality. One article provided a definition of VBIC. Eleven studies reported-mostly positive- effects of VBIC, on clinical outcomes, patient-reported outcomes, and healthcare utilization. Nineteen studies reported facilitators and barriers for the implementation of VBIC; factors related to reimbursement and information technology (IT) infrastructure were reported most frequently. CONCLUSION: The concept of VBIC is not well defined. The effect of VBIC seems promising, but the exact interpretation of effect evaluations is challenged by the precedence of multicomponent interventions, multiple testing and generalizability issues. For successful implementation of VBIC, it is imperative that healthcare organizations consider investing in adequate IT infrastructure and new reimbursement models. Systematic Review Registration: PROSPERO (CRD42021259025).

Prognostic model for overall survival of head and neck cancer patients in the palliative phase.

BACKGROUND: Patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) enter the palliative phase when cure is no longer possible or when they refuse curative treatment. The mean survival is five months, with a range of days until years. Realistic prognostic counseling enables patients to make well-considered end-of-life choices. However, physicians tend to overestimate survival. The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic model that calculates the overall survival (OS) probability of palliative HNSCC patients. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with incurable HNSCC or patients who refused curative treatment for HNSCC between January 1st 2006 and June 3rd 2019 were included (n = 659). Three patients were lost to follow-up. Patients were considered to have incurable HNSCC due to tumor factors (e.g. inoperability with no other curative treatment options, distant metastasis) or patient factors (e.g. the presence of severe comorbidity and/or poor performance status).Tumor and patients factors accounted for 574 patients. An additional 82 patients refused curative treatment and were also considered palliative. The effect of 17 candidate predictors was estimated in the univariable cox proportional hazard regression model. Using backwards selection with a cut-off P-value < 0.10 resulted in a final multivariable prediction model. The C-statistic was calculated to determine the discriminative performance of the model. The final model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. RESULTS: A total of 647 patients (98.6%) died during follow-up. Median OS time was 15.0 weeks (95% CI: 13.5;16.6). Of the 17 candidate predictors, seven were included in the final model: the reason for entering the palliative phase, the number of previous HNSCC, cT, cN, cM, weight loss in the 6 months before diagnosis, and the WHO performance status. The internally validated C-statistic was 0.66 indicating moderate discriminative ability. The model showed some optimism, with a shrinkage factor of 0.89. CONCLUSION: This study enabled the development and internal validation of a prognostic model that predicts the OS probability in HNSCC patients in the palliative phase. This model facilitates personalized prognostic counseling in the palliative phase. External validation and qualitative research are necessary before widespread use in patient counseling and end-of-life care.

Between-hospital variation in indicators of quality of care: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to mitigate unwarranted variation in the quality of care require insight into the 'level' (eg, patient, physician, ward, hospital) at which observed variation exists. This systematic literature review aims to synthesise the results of studies that quantify the extent to which hospitals contribute to variation in quality indicator scores. METHODS: Embase, Medline, Web of Science, Cochrane and Google Scholar were systematically searched from 2010 to November 2023. We included studies that reported a measure of between-hospital variation in quality indicator scores relative to total variation, typically expressed as a variance partition coefficient (VPC). The results were analysed by disease category and quality indicator type. RESULTS: In total, 8373 studies were reviewed, of which 44 met the inclusion criteria. Casemix adjusted variation was studied for multiple disease categories using 144 indicators, divided over 5 types: intermediate clinical outcomes (n=81), final clinical outcomes (n=35), processes (n=10), patient-reported experiences (n=15) and patient-reported outcomes (n=3). In addition to an analysis of between-hospital variation, eight studies also reported physician-level variation (n=54 estimates). In general, variation that could be attributed to hospitals was limited (median VPC=3%, IQR=1%-9%). Between-hospital variation was highest for process indicators (17.4%, 10.8%-33.5%) and lowest for final clinical outcomes (1.4%, 0.6%-4.2%) and patient-reported outcomes (1.0%, 0.9%-1.5%). No clear pattern could be identified in the degree of between-hospital variation by disease category. Furthermore, the studies exhibited limited attention to the reliability of observed differences in indicator scores. CONCLUSION: Hospital-level variation in quality indicator scores is generally small relative to residual variation. However, meaningful variation between hospitals does exist for multiple indicators, especially for care processes which can be directly influenced by hospital policy. Quality improvement strategies are likely to generate more impact if preceded by level-specific and indicator-specific analyses of variation, and when absolute variation is also considered. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022315850.

Validity of the self-administered comorbidity questionnaire in patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

Background: The International Consortium for Health Outcomes Measurement has selected the self-administered comorbidity questionnaire (SCQ) to adjust case-mix when comparing outcomes of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) treatment between healthcare providers. However, the SCQ has not been validated for use in IBD patients. Objectives: We assessed the validity of the SCQ for measuring comorbidities in IBD patients. Design: Cohort study. Methods: We assessed the criterion validity of the SCQ for IBD patients by comparing patient-reported and clinician-reported comorbidities (as noted in the electronic health record) of the 13 diseases of the SCQ using Cohen's kappa. Construct validity was assessed using the Spearman correlation coefficient between the SCQ and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), clinician-reported SCQ, quality of life, IBD-related healthcare and productivity costs, prevalence of disability, and IBD disease activity. We assessed responsiveness by correlating changes in the SCQ with changes in healthcare costs, productivity costs, quality of life, and disease activity after 15 months. Results: We included 613 patients. At least fair agreement (κ > 0.20) was found for most comorbidities, but the agreement was slight (κ < 0.20) for stomach disease [κ = 0.19, 95% CI (-0.03; 0.41)], blood disease [κ = 0.02, 95% CI (-0.06; 0.11)], and back pain [κ = 0.18, 95% CI (0.11; 0.25)]. Correlations were found between the SCQ and the clinician-reported SCQ [ρ = 0.60, 95% CI (0.55; 0.66)], CCI [ρ = 0.39, 95% CI (0.31; 0.45)], the prevalence of disability [ρ = 0.23, 95% CI (0.15; 0.32)], and quality of life [ρ = -0.30, 95% CI (-0.37; -0.22)], but not between the SCQ and healthcare or productivity costs or disease activity (|ρ| ⩽ 0.2). A change in the SCQ after 15 months was not correlated with a change in any of the outcomes. Conclusion: The SCQ is a valid tool for measuring comorbidity in IBD patients, but face and content validity should be improved before being used to correct case-mix differences.

Standardized mortality ratios for regionalized acute cardiovascular care.

BACKGROUND: Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs) are case-mix adjusted mortality rates per hospital and are used to evaluate quality of care. However, acute care is increasingly organized on a regional level, with more severe patients admitted to specialized hospitals. We hypothesize that the current case-mix adjustment insufficiently captures differences in case-mix between non-specialized and specialized hospitals. We aim to improve the SMR by adding proxies of disease severity to the model and by calculating a regional SMR (RSMR) for acute cerebrovascular disease (CVD) and myocardial infarction (MI). METHODS: We used data from the Dutch National Basic Registration of Hospital Care. We selected all admissions from 2016 to 2018. SMRs and RSMRs were calculated by dividing the observed in-hospital mortality by the expected in-hospital mortality. The expected in-hospital mortality was calculated using logistic regression with adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status, severity of main diagnosis, urgency of admission, Charlson comorbidity index, place of residence before admission, month/year of admission, and in-hospital mortality as outcome. RESULTS: The IQR of hospital SMRs of CVD was 0.85-1.10, median 0.94, with higher SMRs for specialized hospitals (median 1.12, IQR 1.00-1.28, 71%-SMR > 1) than for non-specialized hospitals (median 0.92, IQR 0.82-1.07, 32%-SMR > 1). The IQR of RSMRs was 0.92-1.09, median 1.00. The IQR of hospital SMRs of MI was 0.76-1.14, median 0.98, with higher SMRs for specialized hospitals (median 1.00, IQR 0.89-1.25, 50%-SMR > 1 versus median 0.94, IQR 0.74-1.11, 44%-SMR > 1). The IQR of RSMRs was 0.90-1.08, median 1.00. Adjustment for proxies of disease severity mostly led to lower SMRs of specialized hospitals. CONCLUSION: SMRs of acute regionally organized diseases do not only measure differences in quality of care between hospitals, but merely measure differences in case-mix between hospitals. Although the addition of proxies of disease severity improves the model to calculate SMRs, real disease severity scores would be preferred. However, such scores are not available in administrative data. As a consequence, the usefulness of the current SMR as quality indicator is very limited. RSMRs are potentially more useful, since they fit regional organization and might be a more valid representation of quality of care.

Handling missing values in the analysis of between-hospital differences in ordinal and dichotomous outcomes: a simulation study.

Missing data are frequently encountered in registries that are used to compare performance across hospitals. The most appropriate method for handling missing data when analysing differences in outcomes between hospitals with a generalised linear mixed model is unclear. We aimed to compare methods for handling missing data when comparing hospitals on ordinal and dichotomous outcomes. We performed a simulation study using data from the Multicentre Randomised Controlled Trial of Endovascular Treatment for Acute Ischaemic Stroke in the Netherlands (MR CLEAN) Registry, a prospective cohort study in 17 hospitals performing endovascular therapy for ischaemic stroke in the Netherlands. The investigated methods for handling missing data, both case-mix adjustment variables and outcomes, were complete case analysis, single imputation, multiple imputation, single imputation with deletion of imputed outcomes and multiple imputation with deletion of imputed outcomes. Data were generated as missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random and missing not at random (MNAR) in three scenarios: (1) 10% missing data in case-mix and outcome; (2) 40% missing data in case-mix and outcome; and (3) 40% missing data in case-mix and outcome with varying degree of missing data among hospitals. Bias and reliability of the methods were compared on the mean squared error (MSE, a summary measure combining bias and reliability) relative to the hospital effect estimates from the complete reference data set. For both the ordinal outcome (ie, the modified Rankin Scale) and a common dichotomised version thereof, all methods of handling missing data were biased, likely due to shrinkage of the random effects. The MSE of all methods was on average lowest under MCAR and with fewer missing data, and highest with more missing data and under MNAR. The 'multiple imputation, then deletion' method had the lowest MSE for both outcomes under all simulated patterns of missing data. Thus, when estimating hospital effects on ordinal and dichotomous outcomes in the presence of missing data, the least biased and most reliable method to handle these missing data is 'multiple imputation, then deletion'.

Intramural Healthcare Consumption and Costs After Traumatic Brain Injury: A Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) Study.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a global public health problem and a leading cause of mortality, morbidity, and disability. The increasing incidence combined with the heterogeneity and complexity of TBI will inevitably place a substantial burden on health systems. These findings emphasize the importance of obtaining accurate and timely insights into healthcare consumption and costs on a multi-national scale. This study aimed to describe intramural healthcare consumption and costs across the full spectrum of TBI in Europe. The Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) core study is a prospective observational study conducted in 18 countries across Europe and in Israel. The baseline Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) was used to differentiate patients by brain injury severity in mild (GCS 13-15), moderate (GCS 9-12), or severe (GCS ≤8) TBI. We analyzed seven main cost categories: pre-hospital care, hospital admission, surgical interventions, imaging, laboratory, blood products, and rehabilitation. Costs were estimated based on Dutch reference prices and converted to country-specific unit prices using gross domestic product (GDP)-purchasing power parity (PPP) adjustment. Mixed linear regression was used to identify between-country differences in length of stay (LOS), as a parameter of healthcare consumption. Mixed generalized linear models with gamma distribution and log link function quantified associations of patient characteristics with higher total costs. We included 4349 patients, of whom 2854 (66%) had mild, 371 (9%) had moderate, and 962 (22%) had severe TBI. Hospitalization accounted for the largest part of the intramural consumption and costs (60%). In the total study population, the mean LOS was 5.1 days at the intensive care unit (ICU) and 6.3 days at the ward. For mild, moderate, and severe TBI, mean LOS was, respectively, 1.8, 8.9, and 13.5 days at the ICU and 4.5, 10.1, and 10.3 days at the ward. Other large contributors to the total costs were rehabilitation (19%) and intracranial surgeries (8%). Total costs increased with higher age and greater trauma severity (mild; €3,800 [IQR €1,400-14,000], moderate; €37,800 [IQR €14,900-€74,200], severe; €60,400 [IQR €24,400-€112,700]). The adjusted analysis showed that female patients had lower costs than male patients (odds ratio (OR) 0.80 [CI 0.75-1.85]). Increasing TBI severity was associated with higher costs, OR 1.46 (confidence interval [CI] 1.31-1.63) and OR 1.67 [CI 1.52-1.84] for moderate and severe patients, respectively. A worse pre-morbid overall health state, increasing age and more severe systemic trauma, expressed in the Injury Severity Score (ISS), were also significantly associated with higher costs. Intramural costs of TBI are significant and are profoundly driven by hospitalization. Costs increased with trauma severity and age, and male patients incurred higher costs. Reducing LOS could be targeted with advanced care planning, in order to provide cost-effective care.

Validity of Early Outcomes as Indicators for Comparing Hospitals on Quality of Stroke Care.

Background Insight into outcome variation between hospitals could help to improve quality of care. We aimed to assess the validity of early outcomes as quality indicators for acute ischemic stroke care for patients treated with endovascular therapy (EVT). Methods and Results We used data from the MR CLEAN (Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial of Endovascular Treatment for Acute Ischemic Stroke in the Netherlands) Registry, a large multicenter prospective cohort study including 3279 patients with acute ischemic stroke undergoing EVT. Random effect linear and proportional odds regression were used to analyze the effect of case mix on between-hospital differences in 2 early outcomes: the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score at 24 to 48 hours and the expanded thrombolysis in cerebral infarction score. Between-hospital variation in outcomes was assessed using the variance of random hospital effects (tau2). In addition, we estimated the correlation between hospitals' EVT-patient volume and (case-mix-adjusted) outcomes. Both early outcomes and case-mix characteristics varied significantly across hospitals. Between-hospital variation in the expanded thrombolysis in cerebral infarction score was not influenced by case-mix adjustment (tau 2=0.17 in both models). In contrast, for the NIHSS score at 24 to 48 hours, case-mix adjustment led to a decrease in variation between hospitals (tau 2 decreases from 0.19 to 0.17). Hospitals' EVT-patient volume was strongly correlated with higher expanded thrombolysis in cerebral infarction scores (r=0.48) and weakly with lower NIHSS score at 24 to 48 hours (r=0.15). Conclusions Between-hospital variation in NIHSS score at 24 to 48 hours is significantly influenced by case-mix but not by patient volume. In contrast, between-hospital variation in expanded thrombolysis in cerebral infarction score is strongly influenced by EVT-patient volume but not by case-mix. Both outcomes may be suitable for comparing hospitals on quality of care, provided that adequate adjustment for case-mix is applied for NIHSS score.

Disentangling the Association Between Neurologic Deficits, Patient-Reported Impairments, and Quality of Life After Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The EuroQol Group 5-Dimension Self-Reported Questionnaire (EQ-5D) is a well-established instrument to assess quality of life and generates generic utility values for health states reported by patients, derived from assessments by the general public. We hypothesized that language problems and other nonmotor deficits are not captured as well as motor deficits by this system. We aimed to quantify the association between disabling neurologic deficits and the EQ-5D dimension scores and the utility score in patients with ischemic stroke. METHODS: We used data of the Interventional Management of Stroke III trial. Missing data were imputed by multiple imputation. The association between neurologic deficits (individual NIH Stroke Scale [NIHSS] item scores) and the EQ-5D-3L (5 three-level dimension scores and utility score) at 90 days was assessed with ordinal logistic regression and Tobit regression, respectively. The explained variance of each model was estimated with Nagelkerke pseudo-R2 or R2. RESULTS: In total, 525 surviving patients were included. Complete data on both the NIHSS and EQ-5D were available for 481/525 (91.6%) patients. At 90 days, 161/491 (32.8%) patients had aphasia and 226/491 (46.0%) patients had paresis of at least 1 limb. Limb paresis, facial palsy, sensory loss, and dysarthria explained most of the variance in all EQ-5D dimension scores and the utility score. In the utility score, 8.9% of the variance was explained by neglect, 10.0% by aphasia, 10.8% by hemianopia, and 17.5%-24.1% by limb paresis. DISCUSSION: The impact of neurologic deficits on the EQ-5D in patients with ischemic stroke is mostly due to limb paresis, while the EQ-5D is less sensitive to other nonmotor deficits such as hemianopia, aphasia, and neglect. This may lead to overestimation of quality of life and, consequently, underestimation of the (cost-)effectiveness of treatments and interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION: ClinicalTrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00359424.

Optimizing the Psychosocial Function Measures in the International Consortium for Health Outcomes Measurement Standard Set for Cleft.

BACKGROUND: To ensure the feasibility of implementing PROMs in clinical practice, they must be continually appraised for undue burden placed on patients and clinicians and their usefulness for decision-making. This study assesses correlations between the CLEFT-Q psychosocial scales in the International Consortium for Health Outcomes Measurement Standard Set for cleft and explores their associations with patient characteristics and psychosocial care referral. METHODS: Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated for CLEFT-Q psychological function, social function, school function, face, speech function, and speech-related distress scales. Logistic regressions were used to assess the association of cleft phenotype, syndrome, sex, and adoption status on scale scores and clinical referral to psychosocial care for further evaluation and management. RESULTS: Data were obtained from 3067 patients with cleft lip and/or palate at three centers. Strong correlations were observed between social function and psychological function (r > 0.69) and school function (r > 0.78) scales. Correlation between school function and psychological function scales was lower (r = 0.59 to 0.68). Genetic syndrome (OR, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.04 to 5.41), psychological function (OR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.88 to 0.97), school function (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90 to 0.98), and face (OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.94 to 0.98) were significant predictors for referral to psychosocial care. CONCLUSIONS: Because social function as measured by the CLEFT-Q showed strong correlations with both school and psychological function, its additional value for measuring psychosocial function within the Standard Set is limited, and it is reasonable to consider removing this scale from the International Consortium for Health Outcomes Measurement Standard Set for cleft.

Effect of Treatment in a Specialized Pediatric Hemato-Oncology Setting on 5-Year Survival in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: A Quasi-Experimental Study.

Survival rates of adolescents and young adults (AYAs) with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) are inferior to those of pediatric ALL patients. In part, this may be caused by differences in treatment setting. Generally, children are treated in specialized pediatric hemato-oncology settings, whereas AYAs are treated in adult hemato-oncology settings. Since 2005, adult treatment protocols have included pediatric-inspired chemotherapy, which has been the standard of care for AYAs from 2008 onwards. This study aims to assess whether, despite protocols in both settings having become more similar, there remains an effect of treatment in specialized pediatric hemato-oncology settings on 5-year survival for ALL patients in the Netherlands. We used nationwide registry data (2004-2013) on 472 ALL patients aged between 10 and 30 years old. A fuzzy regression discontinuity design was applied to estimate the treatment effect using two-stage least squares regression with the treatment threshold at 17 years and 7 months of age, adjusting for sex, age at diagnosis, and immunophenotype. We found a risk difference of 0.419 (p = 0.092; 95% CI = -0.0686; 0.907), meaning a 41.9 percentage point greater probability of surviving five years after diagnosis for ALL patients treated in specialized pediatric hemato-oncology settings. Our results suggest that ALL patients around the threshold could benefit from increased collaboration between pediatric and adult hemato-oncology in terms of survival.

Estimation of treatment effects in observational stroke care data: comparison of statistical approaches.

INTRODUCTION: Various statistical approaches can be used to deal with unmeasured confounding when estimating treatment effects in observational studies, each with its own pros and cons. This study aimed to compare treatment effects as estimated by different statistical approaches for two interventions in observational stroke care data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used prospectively collected data from the MR CLEAN registry including all patients (n = 3279) with ischemic stroke who underwent endovascular treatment (EVT) from 2014 to 2017 in 17 Dutch hospitals. Treatment effects of two interventions - i.e., receiving an intravenous thrombolytic (IVT) and undergoing general anesthesia (GA) before EVT - on good functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale ≤2) were estimated. We used three statistical regression-based approaches that vary in assumptions regarding the source of unmeasured confounding: individual-level (two subtypes), ecological, and instrumental variable analyses. In the latter, the preference for using the interventions in each hospital was used as an instrument. RESULTS: Use of IVT (range 66-87%) and GA (range 0-93%) varied substantially between hospitals. For IVT, the individual-level (OR ~ 1.33) resulted in significant positive effect estimates whereas in instrumental variable analysis no significant treatment effect was found (OR 1.11; 95% CI 0.58-1.56). The ecological analysis indicated no statistically significant different likelihood (ß = - 0.002%; P = 0.99) of good functional outcome at hospitals using IVT 1% more frequently. For GA, we found non-significant opposite directions of points estimates the treatment effect in the individual-level (ORs ~ 0.60) versus the instrumental variable approach (OR = 1.04). The ecological analysis also resulted in a non-significant negative association (0.03% lower probability). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Both magnitude and direction of the estimated treatment effects for both interventions depend strongly on the statistical approach and thus on the source of (unmeasured) confounding. These issues should be understood concerning the specific characteristics of data, before applying an approach and interpreting the results. Instrumental variable analysis might be considered when unobserved confounding and practice variation is expected in observational multicenter studies.

International external validation of a stratification tool to identify branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms at lowest risk of progression.

BACKGROUND: Identifying branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) at lowest risk of progression may allow for a reduced intensity of surveillance. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to externally validate the previously developed Dutch-American Risk stratification Tool (DART-1; https://rtools.mayo.edu/DART/), which identifies cysts at low risk of developing worrisome features (WFs) or high-risk stigmata (HRS). METHODS: Three prospective cohorts of individuals under surveillance for BD-IPMNs were combined, independent from the original development cohort. We assessed the performance (discrimination and calibration) of DART-1, a multivariable Cox-proportional logistic regression model with five predictors for the development of WFs or HRS. RESULTS: Of 832 individuals (mean age 77 years, SD 11.5) under surveillance for a median of 40 months (IQR 44), 163 (20%) developed WFs or HRS. DART-1's discriminative ability (C-statistic 0.68) was similar to that in the development cohort (0.64-0.72) and showed moderate calibration. DART-1 adequately estimated the risk for patients in the middle risk quintile, and slightly underestimated it in the lowest quintiles. Their range of predicted versus observed 3-year risk was 0%-0% versus 0%-3.7% for Q1; 0.3%-0.4% versus 3%-11% for Q2; and 2.6%-3% versus 2.4%-9.8% for Q3. The development of WFs or HRS was associated with pancreatic cancer (p < 0.001). Vice versa, in absence of WFs or HRS, the risk of malignancy was low (0.3%). CONCLUSIONS: The performance of DART-1 to predict the development of WFs or HRS in BD-IPMN was validated in an external international cohort, with a discriminative ability equal as in the development cohort. Risk estimations were most accurate for patients with BD-IPMNs in the middle risk quintile and slightly underestimated in the lowest quintiles.

Value-based care pathway for inflammatory bowel disease: a protocol for the multicentre longitudinal non-randomised parallel cluster IBD Value study with baseline period.

INTRODUCTION: Biologics are effective for the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, unwarranted variation in processes and outcomes has been reported in the treatment of IBD. A care pathway for the treatment of IBD has the potential to reduce practice variation and improve outcomes. This study aims to compare the effect of a uniform care pathway for the treatment of patients with IBD with biologics to the current situation. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: IBD Value is a longitudinal multicentre non-randomised parallel cluster trial with a baseline period. The study takes place in eight centres in the Netherlands. The baseline period will run for 12 months, after which the care pathway will be implemented in 6 of the 8 participating hospitals during the implementation phase of 3 months. Hereafter, the effect of the care pathway will be assessed for 12 months. Total study period is 27 months. The primary outcome is the effect of the care pathway on disease control (IBD-Control questionnaire). Secondary outcomes are the effect of the care pathway on the other outcomes of the International Consortium of Health Outcomes Measurement IBD standard set, health-related generic quality of life, patient experiences and degree of variation; cost effectiveness of the care pathway; and the variation between hospitals in the aforementioned outcomes in the baseline period. Outcomes will be measured every 6 months. The study started on 1 December 2020 and a minimum of 200 patients will be included. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was deemed not to be subject to Dutch law (WMO; Medical Research Involving Human Subjects Act) by the Medical Ethics Committee of the Erasmus MC, the Netherlands (registration number: MEC-2020-075) and a waiver was provided. Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and presented at (inter)national conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NL8276.

Can We Cluster ICU Treatment Strategies for Traumatic Brain Injury by Hospital Treatment Preferences?

BACKGROUND: In traumatic brain injury (TBI), large between-center differences in treatment and outcome for patients managed in the intensive care unit (ICU) have been shown. The aim of this study is to explore if European neurotrauma centers can be clustered, based on their treatment preference in different domains of TBI care in the ICU. METHODS: Provider profiles of centers participating in the Collaborative European Neurotrauma Effectiveness Research in TBI study were used to assess correlations within and between the predefined domains: intracranial pressure monitoring, coagulation and transfusion, surgery, prophylactic antibiotics, and more general ICU treatment policies. Hierarchical clustering using Ward's minimum variance method was applied to group data with the highest similarity. Heat maps were used to visualize whether hospitals could be grouped to uncover types of hospitals adhering to certain treatment strategies. RESULTS: Provider profiles were available from 66 centers in 20 different countries in Europe and Israel. Correlations within most of the predefined domains varied from low to high correlations (mean correlation coefficients 0.2-0.7). Correlations between domains were lower, with mean correlation coefficients of 0.2. Cluster analysis showed that policies could be grouped, but hospitals could not be grouped based on their preference. CONCLUSIONS: Although correlations between treatment policies within domains were found, the failure to cluster hospitals indicates that a specific treatment choice within a domain is not a proxy for other treatment choices within or outside the domain. These results imply that studying the effects of specific TBI interventions on outcome can be based on between-center variation without being substantially confounded by other treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: We do not report the results of a health care intervention.

Key Aspects of Prognostic Model Development and Interpretation From a Clinical Perspective.

Importance: Prognostication is an important aspect of clinical decision-making, but it is often challenging. Previous studies show that both patients and physicians tend to overestimate survival chances. Prediction models may assist in estimating and quantifying prognosis. However, insufficient understanding of the development, possibilities, and limitations of such models can lead to misinterpretations. Although many excellent books and comprehensive methodological articles on prognostic model research are published, they may not be accessible enough for the clinical audience. Our aim is to provide an overview on the main issues regarding prediction research for health care professionals to achieve better interpretation and increase the use of prognostic models in daily clinical practice. Observations: The first steps of model development include coding of predictors, model specification, and estimation. Next, we discuss the assessment of the performance of a prediction model, including discrimination and calibration aspects, followed by approaches to internal and external validation and updating. Finally, model reporting, presentation, and steps toward clinical implementation are presented. Conclusions and Relevance: After thorough consideration of the research question, data inspection, and coding of predictors, one can start with the specification of a prediction model. The number of candidate predictors should be kept limited, in view of the number of events in the data, to prevent overfitting. Calibration and discrimination are 2 aspects of model performance that complement each other and should be assessed preferably at external validation. Model development should be accompanied by qualitative research among patients and physicians to facilitate the development of a valuable tool and maximize possibilities for successful implementation. After model presentation is optimized, impact studies are required to assess the clinical value of a prediction model.

Performance feedback on the quality of care in hospitals performing thrombectomy for ischemic stroke (PERFEQTOS): protocol of a stepped wedge cluster randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Although the provision of performance feedback to healthcare professionals based on data from quality registries is common practice in many fields of medicine, observational studies of its effect on the quality of care have shown mixed results. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of performance feedback on the quality of care for acute ischemic stroke. METHODS: PERFEQTOS is a stepped wedge cluster randomized trial in 13 hospitals in the Netherlands providing endovascular thrombectomy for ischemic stroke. The primary outcome is the hospital's door-to-groin time. The study starts with a 6-month period in which none of the hospitals receives the performance feedback intervention. Subsequently, every 6 months, three or four hospitals are randomized to cross over from the control to the intervention conditions, until all hospitals receive the feedback intervention. The feedback intervention consists of a dashboard with quarterly reports on patient characteristics, structure, process, and outcome indicators related to patients with ischemic stroke treated with endovascular thrombectomy. Hospitals can compare their present performance with their own performance in the past and with other hospitals. The performance feedback is provided to local quality improvement teams in each hospital, who define their own targets on specific indicators and develop performance improvement plans. The impact of the performance feedback and improvement plans will be evaluated by comparing the primary outcome before and after the intervention. DISCUSSION: This study will provide evidence on the effectiveness of performance feedback to healthcare providers. The results will be actively disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, conference presentations, and various stakeholder engagement activities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Netherlands Trial Register NL9090 . Registered on December 3, 2020.

Cost-effectiveness of prophylactic hysterectomy in first-degree female relatives with Lynch syndrome of patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer in the United States: a microsimulation study.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of prophylactic hysterectomy (PH) in women with Lynch syndrome (LS). METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model incorporating the natural history for the development of hyperplasia with and without atypia into endometrial cancer (EC) based on the MISCAN-framework. We simulated women identified as first-degree relatives (FDR) with LS of colorectal cancer patients after universal testing for LS. We estimated costs and benefits of offering this cohort PH, accounting for reduced quality of life after PH and for having EC. Three minimum ages (30/35/40) and three maximum ages (70/75/80) were compared to no PH. RESULTS: In the absence of PH, the estimated number of EC cases was 300 per 1,000 women with LS. Total associated costs for treatment of EC were $5.9 million. Offering PH to FDRs aged 40-80 years was considered optimal. This strategy reduced the number of endometrial cancer cases to 5.4 (-98%), resulting in 516 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained and increasing the costs (treatment of endometrial cancer and PH) to $15.0 million (+154%) per 1,000 women. PH from earlier ages was more costly and resulted in fewer QALYs, although this finding was sensitive to disutility for PH. CONCLUSIONS: Offering PH to 40- to 80-year-old women with LS is expected to add 0.5 QALY per person at acceptable costs. Women may decide to have PH at a younger age, depending on their individual disutility for PH and premature menopause.